If you ever face a potencial customer that shows any or many of these bullet points.... watch out!
They are split by the key parameter that drives the indicator

Debt Activity Induced

1. Senior lender with debt exceeding 10% of total funded debt terminates customer’s facility

2. Any senior debt is classified from long term to short term in any given month on the customer financial statements

3. Bond interest payment in excess of 5% of YTD EBIT is missed by customer

4. Working capital lender ceases funding for customer

5. A default against any of the borrower’s financial obligations other than secured debt

6. A breach of any manufacturing contract in excess of 5% or YTD revenues

7. Any non-monetary default under a loan or lease obligation

8. Any monetary default under a customer loan or lease obligation

9. The customer restructures or refinances any of its other debt obligations at the request of its senior lender

10. Any customer with an unscheduled over advance under their revolving line of credit

11. Senior lender representing 10% or more of total funded debt has given the customer any request, whether verbal or in writing, to get refinanced within a one-year timeframe

12. Customer has changed primary senior lender one or more times in the last 24-months

Customer Management Induced

13. CEO immediate family member suffers material personal tragedy

14. Whole management team quits

15. CEO quits

16. CFO quits

17. Top salesman representing 10% or more of annual revenues quits

18. Death of any one member of senior management

19. Regular turnover in senior management

20. Protracted illness (90 days out of work) of key senior management

21. Any break up of partnership

22. Any transfer of ownership

23. New management team brought into the company

24. Company is acquired by national consolidator as stock purchase

25. Company pulls cash out of business to buyback investment of a stockholder

26. Credit report for PG shows judgments within the last 12-months

27. Customer retains any crisis management firm

28. Employee turnover exceeds 10% in the last 12-months

Operating Results Induced

29. A pre-tax financial statement loss in any one month for a customer

30. Charter service looses its 135 certificate

31. Any domestic subsidiary owned 50% or more files BK

32. Any international subsidiary owned 50% or more files BK

33. Failure to file any SEC required statements in a timely manner

34. Any debt forgiveness that exceeds 10% of funded debt thereby generating a taxable event

35. Customer engages and investment firm for sale of 50% or more of its business

36. 10% reduction in freight shipments over a 12 month period

37. A bankruptcy of one of the borrowers competitors

38. A 10% increase in the borrowers raw material costs

39. Any decline exceeding 1% in the borrowers gross margins for two consecutive years

40. Customer has had more than one NSF with GE in the last six-months

41. Any customer that fails to meet 100% of its payroll

42. Loss or bankruptcy of a borrower’s customers whose revenues comprised more that 5% of total revenue

43. The value of the collateral securing the debt has fallen by more than 15% in any given year

44. Work under a given contract representing 20% of company’s revenues comes up for renewal and the company looses the contract

45. Any customer that allows a lapse in insurance coverage on leased equipment

46. Company is involved in leveraged buyout, which results in a substantial negative impact on company’s liquidity and leverage ratios

47. Company purchases future contracts on raw materials in anticipation of increasing costs

48. Company looses market share in excess of 30% due to product reliability issues

49. Loss of major employer in a local market has ripple effect on other businesses serving businesses and consumers in that market

50. EBIT has declined by more than 20% versus the comparable YAG period

51. Customer’s production plant is damaged by fire, natural disaster, etc, decreasing the company’s production output by greater than 10%

52. Equipment financed to customer representing greater than 20% of customer’s product output is recalled by manufacturer

53. A/P days have increased (faster turn) by more than 10% from the previous year’s A/P turnover

54. Inventory days has slowed by more than 20% from the previous year’s inventory turnover

55. Cash burn exceeds 50% of total operating cash flow in any one month during the last six-months

56. Private-company customer pays a dividend to shareholders that exceeds 50% of net income

57. Any customer with multiple facilities and one of the facilities generates net losses exceeding 20% of total company earnings

58. Backlog has declined by more than 20% from the comparable YAG period

59. Insurance costs increased by more than 15% in the last 12-months

60. Any loss of bonding insurance

61. More than one change in accounting firm representation in the last 12-months

62. Company has been unable to negotiate new union contracts that are due within 90 days

63. Customer is publicly-traded and has been de-listed by one of the US stock exchanges within the last 3 months

64. Any credit-rating downgrade, whether by S&P, Fitch or other major rating agency, of more than two levels in the last 12-months

65. Any credit-rating agency downgrade to junk status within the last 12-months

66. Any customer with KMV rating that has declined to CCC+ or less within the last 12-months

67. Equity sponsor refused continued support

68. A strike is initiated by more than 10% of the company’s workforce

69. Customer has greater than 20% of its receivables aged 90-days +

70. Transportation company with more than 10% of their power units sitting idle

71. Transportation company with a 15% increase in brokered freight

72. Technological changes in equipment used effecting 20% of the cost of equipment

73. Technological changes in product manufactured effecting 20% of the cost of equipment

74. Customer increase in aviation fuel prices by 20% within any 60 day period

75. Customer increase in diesel fuel prices by 20% within any 60 day period

76. Customer increase in heating oil prices by 20% within any 60 day period

77. Customer increase in any natural gas prices by 10% in any 60 day period

Trade Vendor Induced

78. Loss of any key supplier representing more than 10% of annual raw material purchases

79. Utility bill remains unpaid for 60 days

80. Sewer and sanitation bill remains unpaid for 60 days

81. Adverse Administrative ruling entered against customer or one of their key suppliers or customers entered resulting in a 15% decline of TNW

Litigation/Judgment/Legal suit Induced

82. Any judgment in excess of 10% of aggregate current assets

83. Any casualty loss exceeding 10% of total assets

84. Any IRS levy event

85. Any IRS lien event

86. Notice of any lien or judgment being filed on the company as a result of a lawsuit against the company

87. Any working capital fraud is perpetrated by management or any operating division of the obligor representing 15% or more of annual revenue base

88. Any criminal indictment of a company officer

89. Adverse Legal judgment against one of their key suppliers or customers

90. Product liability filed against company or against supplier (10%) or purchaser (10%) or which results in cessation of production of product

91. Eminent Domain against customer or one of their key suppliers or customers entered

92. A judgment against the company in excess of 10% of its net worth

93. Unpaid payroll taxes, FICA and Fed Withholding

94. Customer relies on patents that will expire within the next 6-months and such products protected by patents constitute at least 10% of total revenue

95. Customer has been advised by bankruptcy counsel within the last six-months

96. Customer has hired a turnaround consultant within the last 12-months

97. Customer relies on patents that will expire within the next 6-months and such products protected by patents constitute at least 10% of net income

98. Any violation of patent, trademark, or copyright laws where such infringements would result in fines exceeding $100,000

Environmentally Induced

99. Customer environmental damage/contamination with remediation costs exceeding 10% of aggregate current assets

100. Customer is identified as a PRP in any environmental claim

Tags: published, business, financial, risk
June 01, 2016 at 01:18PM
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